Ukraine update 2023-03-28

The intensity of the fighting all over Ukraine has gone down slightly they over the last few weeks. I’d say we are on a 4/5 compared to a month ago when we saw RuAF attacking with newly rotated units. It seems RuAF are slightly less focused on Bakhmut and it’s surroundings. I’ve been wanting to try out substack for a while, so here we go.

This post might be too long for reading in an e-mail

For more details and a legend, visit the interactive map

Overview images7

Images showing the active frontline. There is some minor fighting going on from time to time in the Dnipro delta, but I do not think anything will come out of it.

Weather

As usual, we have a look at the weather, possibly snow and temperatures around 0.

David Helms @davidhelms570

MAR 28, 2023: #NAFO #NAFOWeather Snow(north). Cloudy. Low Temp 1C to 3C. Wind from west at 5-11 m/s THU (MAR 30) Occasional Mix/Rain (northeast). Mostly Cloudy(elsewhere). Low Temp -2C to 1C FRI-SAT (MAR 31-APR 1) Mix/Rain(east/north) Rain(west/south). Low Temp -1 to 4C.

Kupyansk

RuAF have for the last few weeks increased attacks in the Kupyansk area, these last 24 hours they attacked a bit south in the area of Krokhmal'ne. There are numerous reports about RuAF accumulating forces in the Belgorod area, I believe these units are parts of 1st Guards Tank Army which have been restoring combat capabilities in Belarus and spent a few months there training mobiks.

The crossing over the Oskil river is more or less till contested by RuAF fires. I think RuAF want to shut down the UA bridge head there and possibly try to push the AFU behind the Oskil all the way down to the SD river. I don’t think their (RU) chances are great.

Kreminna-Siversk

During the last few months, RuAF have managed to push the AFU back a bit from Dibrova towards Tors'ke. I previously considered this area mostly a grey zone, but RuAF have somewhat control of the area now. The AFU have lost a little bit of ground south of Dibrova and Kreminna, despite heavy attacks by RU VDV units composed of mostly mobiks, RuAF have not managed to gain much ground in the forest. South of the river in the area East of Siversk, the intensity seems to have picked up slightly the last few weeks, in contrary to the area south of Siversk where the intensity have decreased a lot.

The AFU have repulsed attacks in the are of Kreminna, Kuzmyne, Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske and Berestove.

Bakhmut

The RuAF offensive in the surrounding area have slowed down to a halt (or almost). The reports from fighters in the area talk about RuAF not attacking on a broad front but instead focusing on smaller sections of the front, I believe this is a result of attrition. I think RuAF need to rotate troops if they have enough reserves and equipment to do so to regain momentum.

The AFU have repulsed attacks in the area of Bakhmut, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Ozaryanivka

Inside Bakhmut city fighting is going on in 3 main areas, in the northern part around the AZOM plant, in the south along the Korsunskogo Street and in the area of Mariupolska street. Recent videos shows RuAF progress around the Palace of culture and the market.

Blue and Red dots represent geolocated UA/RU positions. If you click on them on the interactive map, you will see the link to the post on twitter or telegram

I recommend reading threads by @daspiun for details and videos, they are great.

Dan @Danspiun

288. Central Bakhmut/market area. After Wagner took School № 5 recently (tweet 286) fighting moved north into the market area along the Bakhmutska river. At 0:05-11 UAF shoot from Myru St east past the SW corner of the Palace of Culture (48.588605, 38.001990) towards the market.

Avdiivka

Recent RuAF progress in this area have worsened the situation for the AFU. The initial push from RuAF seems to have slowed down, but I have no doubt we will see renewed attempts to try to close the encirclement around Avdiivka. The AFU have strong secondary lines west of Avdiivka in case they lose the city, so from that point of view it’s not the end of the world, however the RuAF logistical situation will most likely improve in Donetsk. If the AFU lose Avdiivka, a lot of pressure will be applied to the south in the Pervomais'ke and Krasnohorivka direction.

Stepove, Avdiivka, Severna, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and Marinka

There were also attacks on Nevel's'ke and the mandatory Marinka.

Both yesterday and today the Ukrainian general staff reported about RuAF using teargas, which is a violation of International law.

He (the enemy) used non-lethal aerosol "tear gas" grenades in the areas of Novokalynove, Lastochkine, Pervomaiske and Maryinka settlements.

The use of gas is a daily occurrence and that is why we are seeing posts like these:

Rebekah M @bekamaciorowski

Thanks to you guys, I can now get my windshield fixed!! I am blown away by your generosity! Question: do you guys mind if I use the extra funds to buy (WORKING) gas masks for our troops? Many new troops have yet to be issued one, and those that do have one, often have this GP-5… https://t.co/yafAnBdZ2F

@bekamaciorowski Does great work in Ukraine, she is worth a follow and a coffee.

In this thread @Tatarigami_UA describe how ‘non lethal gas’ is being used to flush out Ukrainian troops from their bunkers.

Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA

🧵Thread 1/ The use of tear gas in warfare is a growing trend, with different tactical adaptations being employed. One such adaptation involves the use of tear gas dropped from drones near dugouts. This tactic is aimed at flushing out defenders and gaining a tactical advantage.

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